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| Probation staff threaten strike Probation staff and workers at family courts say they will go on strike if "savage cuts" are made in next week's comprehensive spending review. bbc.co.uk |
A 'new deal' is needed on refugees | Simon Tisdall Four-fifths of all refugees eke out a living in the developing world – the west must do more to carry its share of the burdenPeople in wealthy western countries such as American Tea Party members agitated about rising prices, unemployment and house repossessions might pause to reflect that things could be worse: they could be refugees. For a multitude of reasons, among which the financial crisis is but one, there has never been a worse time to be a displaced person, economic migrant or asylum seeker.Speaking this week at the Refugee Studies Centre at Oxford University, Antonio Guterres, UN high commissioner for refugees, described the daunting dimensions of an accelerating global crisis that the international community has yet to fully understand, let alone provide a coherent response to. And contrary to the populist and racist perceptions peddled by Europe's far-right, many western countries are doing less, not more to help.Four-fifths of all refugees eke out a living in the developing world, which carries a correspondingly disproportionate share of the burden, Guterres said. Comparing the number of refugees a country hosts with its per capita GDP shows that the 25 countries most affected by the refugee phenomenon are all in the developing world, including 14 least developed countries (LDCs).Pakistan, subjected to harsh criticism in a recent White House report over its perceived failures as a partner in the "war on terror", is the most heavily burdened state in the world, with 745 refugees, mostly Afghans, for every $1 in per capita GDP. In contrast, Germany, Europe's richest economy, has 17 refugees for every $1 of national income. Britain has seven.Guterres, a lifelong socialist and former prime minister of Portugal who took over at the UNHCR in 2005, said in an interview that the organisation spent much of its time firefighting in the teeth of negative global trends. One was the growing intractability of conflicts that showed no sign of being resolved and the diminishing, increasingly dangerous "humanitarian space" in which the UN and aid workers were obliged to operate."There is an arc of crisis reaching from Pakistan and Afghanistan through the Middle East to Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and Chad that produces two-thirds of the world's refugees," Guterres said. These problem areas were increasingly linked. They became "breeding grounds" for terrorism. And all such problems were exacerbated, in turn, by global megatrends – population growth, urbanisation, food and energy insecurity, water scarcity and, particularly, climate change, he said.In addition, local or regional crises, as in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo, had also become entrenched and were creating both quasi-permanent and global refugee populations. "In this arc, things are not getting better. Somalia is a total disaster. Yemen is getting worse," he said.Guterres said the number of refugees being resettled abroad was rising but the number of resettlement places on offer was inadequate – roughly 10% of the 800,000 annual applicants. The total number of applicants has doubled since 2005. "Europe currently provides around 6,000 resettlement places a year or about 7.5% of the total worldwide."Asylum seekers faced similar obstacles while forced repatriation policies, as applied to Iraqis for example, sent an "unhelpful" signal to Syria and Jordan where the vast majority of Iraqi refugees was located, he said. Advances had been made. And the UNHCR did not dispute the right of countries to control their borders. "Overall, however, there is still no true European asylum system but a patchwork of different national ones, making the situation totally dysfunctional."Guterres also highlighted the plight of an estimated 27 million people forcibly displaced within their own countries, whether by conflict or natural disasters; the particular vulnerability of child refugees, preyed on by traffickers and smugglers; and the relatively new phenomenon of "global refugee populations" that are not located in one placed but seek opportunity wherever they can find it. The most striking example was Somalia.There were nearly 700,000 Somali refugees at the end of 2009, approximately half in Kenya and a quarter in Yemen. "But Somali refugees are everywhere, from Costa Rica to Nepal," Guterres said. "I do not believe there is any group of refugees who are as systematically undesired, stigmatised and discriminated against as Somalis … It is difficult to conceive a situation more abject than that of the Somali refugee."Guterres made plain there were no instant solutions. But he said much more could be done, starting with a full-scale international debate about the scale and seriousness of the problem and how it links to key global challenges such as climate change, which he described a universal "accelerator" of negative trends.In dealing with intractable conflicts, more "robust" peacekeeping and diplomatic interventions might be required, he suggested. Governments should improve access, curb the spread of cheap weapons, and provide better protection for humanitarian personnel. Closer co-operation on migrants between states of origin, transit and destination was needed.Most importantly, perhaps, "a new deal on burden-sharing" between the developed and undeveloped world was required, he said – with renewed emphasis on prevention. "The international community is not good at prevention. But prevention is much cheaper in the long run."RefugeesImmigration and asylumUnited NationsHuman rightsSimon Tisdallguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds guardian.co.uk |
Inside an Essex toy hospital Hilary Brown has been running a toys hospital in Essex for the past 20 years - one of the few remaining places in the UK where you can get a precious toy or teddy bear from your childhood repaired. bbc.co.uk |
Protesters storm council meeting Four people are arrested and 15 police officers injured as protesters storm a town hall in south London. bbc.co.uk |
Osborne sees the road to recovery despite report New fiscal watchdog warns economic situation is delicately balanced, while Labour says government predictions are overly optimisticGeorge Osborne vowed yesterday to press ahead with spending cuts and tax rises, despite concerns that a report by the government's fiscal watchdog showed the recovery was delicately balanced and could be derailed if exports faltered or unemployment went up faster than expected.The chancellor, who was accused of not having a plan B, told the Commons he would "stick to the course" following a report by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that provided both ministers and opposition MPs with ammunition as they debated the fate of the economy.Osborne said the OBR's independent forecast backed his view that the UK was likely to avoid a double-dip recession next year and grow steadily over the life of the parliament. It said the economy would grow by 1.8% this year – a substantial increase on the 1.2% previously expected, and greater than forecasts by international groups such as the OECD.Osborne told MPs: "This is an uncertain world but the British recovery is on track. Employment is growing, one million more jobs are being created, the deficit is set to fall, the plan is working. So we will stick to the course. That is the only way to help confidence to flourish and growth to return."The OBR report, made in response to the government's comprehensive spending review, also backed projections by the Treasury that the UK's annual budget deficit would be reduced from one of the highest in the G20 to one of the lowest following five years of austerity.Osborne said the UK would avoid the fate of Ireland, which has agreed to accept an £85bn bailout, with £7bn from the UK.The OBR also revised downwards its forecast for the number of job losses in the public sector, from 490,000 to 330,000, after a switch from cuts in Whitehall spending to cuts in welfare payments over the next five years.But the OBR said growth over the next two years would be less than expected, giving support to opposition claims that austerity measures would hurt the recovery. Critics of the tax and spending plans said the coalition was gambling that exports would rise and businesses would dramatically increase employment to drive Britain out of recession.Several business groups and City analysts joined the shadow chancellor, Alan Johnson, in calling the OBR's forecasts "overly optimistic" when the world economy was slowing and continental Europe was in the grip of a debt crisis.Johnson characterised Osborne's approach as a "reckless gamble" that relied too heavily on exports and could lead to a "jobless recovery". He said the chancellor was attempting fiscal tightening at a rate that had only been attempted twice in living memory – both times by countries benefiting from strong growth.Douglas Alexander, the shadow work and pensions secretary, will warn in a speech today that "In the current economic crisis, no country other than Ireland has attempted to cut so deeply, so quickly," he told MPs. "The chancellor has chosen to take an unprecedented gamble with people's livelihoods and the country's future, and he has done so on the basis of a fundamental deceit that when he assumed office the public finances were worse than expected. …" The reckless gamble that members opposite support is still to come. The chancellor is in the casino, but he hasn't spun the wheel yet."Osborne's austerity drive will make the return to pre-recession levels of employment "slower and more painful" than many people expect. With the dole queue shrinking by just 15,000 since the coalition came to power, it could take 15 years before numbers claiming out-of-work benefits drop below one million if present trends continue, he will say.Most economists have spent the last three months downgrading forecasts for next year after surveys showed a slump in confidence among consumers and businesses. With house prices falling and much of the rise in employment attributed to part-time workers, consumer spending is expected to weaken.The OBR forecast growth would moderate next year from 2.3% to 2.1%, as exports and business investment slowed.According to analysts at Cambridge Econometrics, even this forecast was optimistic, while David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, warned the economy would struggle next year and unemployment was likely rise above the 8% predicted by the OBR.The TUC general secretary, Brendan Barber, said Osborne "must have missed the forecast showing unemployment little better than static for the next three years". He added: "What is the point of economic policy if it does not include getting people back to work? And while the OBR report is full of uncertainty [about the economy] … George Osborne does not have the plan B any sensible chancellor should."Osborne, who used his response to the OBR report to announce a review of corporation tax, said borrowing this year was expected to be £1bn less than forecast in June. He added: "On the OBR's central forecast, we will meet our fiscal mandate to eliminate the structural current budget deficit one year early, in 2014-15. And the same is true for our target to get debt falling as a percentage of GDP." Over the forecast period, Osborne said £19bn would be saved in interest payments on the national debt.George OsborneTax and spendingLiberal-Conservative coalitionLabourEconomic growth (GDP)EconomicsPhillip InmanPolly Curtisguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds guardian.co.uk |