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| Target culture: back from the dead | David Boyle The coalition says it supports an outcomes-based approach to public services but 'payment by results' reeks of the bad old daysFor a decade or so, my colleagues at the New Economics Foundation, and many others, have been peddling the idea of judging progress in public services in terms of what they call "outcomes" – the stuff that happens as a result of services, not rewarding staff for how much activity there is.Activity, as everyone knows, might be futile. What we want to see is results. The good news is that Conservative rhetoric this week suggests the coalition accepts this. The bad news – and there is some – is that shifting to measuring outcomes will be completely contradicted in practice by the other coalition ambition, "payment by results".In fact, just when we thought we were finally shot of the distorting effects of Whitehall targets, this contradiction looks set to bring them back again while we were looking the other way.First, a bit of background. Targets failed nearly everywhere partly because the most important objectives – education, health and so on – are not really susceptible to narrow measurement. So services had to make do with something less precise, which was bound to distort.But they also failed because of the phenomenon known as Goodhart's Law, named after a former Bank of England director: any measure used to control people – and all targets are that – are bound to be inaccurate.It doesn't matter how inefficient the service is, staff and managers always know how to manipulate the definitions so that their numbers look better. That is why the Labour government spent huge sums checking, auditing, redefining and systematising their controls. Every time they did so, the rules became more complex, more expensive and less connected to reality. The systems thinker John Seddon set out a fearsome critique of the effects this had on processing housing benefits – in one council, the target figures showed an average processing time of 28 days when, from the point of view of the claimants, it was actually 98 days.That was bad enough. But once organisations are paid on the basis of those measures, the distortions are turbo-charged. People concentrate on the target figures to the exclusion of everything else. Peculiar things happen – look at the effects of bank bonuses.So why not simply pay contractors on the basis of their broader effects – their outcomes? It makes logical sense, and it can sometimes be possible if the measures are simple – have the ex-prisoners reoffended or not? Have the jobseekers found work?The problem is that outcomes are not simple. Working out exactly which contractor is responsible for which outcome is almost impossible. The really worthwhile outcomes can't be measured anyway – have the prisoners stayed out of trouble because they are out of their heads on drugs? Have contractors been cherrypicking their candidates? And so the regulations begin to mount, the inspectors loom, and the actual results paid for become narrower and more closely defined.It also means that small contractors will either have to wait for months or years to be paid, or they will be paid on the basis of proxies for outcomes – narrower and more immediate. Something really indistinguishable from targets which – as in the NHS – they just label "payment by results". Then we will be back to the bad old days when Alan Milburn could congratulate the NHS for giving out a record number of prescriptions.So yes to committing to broad outcomes. Yes to services which can go beyond a narrow set of defined achievements – rebuilding the surrounding community, for example. But let's not pretend these things can be measured objectively. Does Whitehall understand this? I'm afraid not, and that means targets are on course for a return – but with extra bite and a great deal more bureaucracy and regulation.Civil servicePublic services policyDavid Boyleguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds guardian.co.uk |
Michael Winner on money and happiness As a euro millions lottery ticket for £113m remains unclaimed, Michael Winner explains what it's like to live the millionaire lifestyle and if it makes people happy. bbc.co.uk |
Expenses: Baroness Uddin, Lord Paul and Lord Bhatia suspended from House of Lords The peers Baroness Uddin, Lord Paul and Lord Bhatia have been given lengthy suspensions from the House of Lords after wrongly claiming thousands of pounds in expenses. telegraph.co.uk |
US embassy cables: Kazakhstan - the big four Monday, 25 January 2010, 08:14S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000072 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB EO 12958 DECL: 01/25/2030 TAGS PGOV, PINR, EPET, EINV, KCOR, RS, CH, KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MONEY AND POWER REF: ASTANA 0061Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (b), (d)1. (S) SUMMARY: During a private dinner, KazMunaiGaz First Vice President Maksat Idenov named, in his view, the four most powerful gate-keepers around President Nursultan Nazarbayev: Chief of Administration and General Services of the President's Office Sarybai Kalmurzayev, the President's Chief of Staff Aslan Musin, State Secretary-Foreign Minister Kanat Saudabayev, and the tandem of Prime Minister Karim Masimov and Nazarbayev's billionaire son-in-law Timur Kulibayev. According to Idenov, in Kazakhstan, market economy means capitalism, which means big money, XXXXXXXXXXXX. The following details are a single snapshot of one version of current reality. The significant point is that Nazarbayev is standing with Idenov, not Kulibayev, to maintain international standards to develop the massive Kashagan and Karachaganak hydrocarbon projects. END SUMMARY.2. (S) On January 21, KazMunaiGaz First Vice President Maksat Idenov and the Ambassador had a one-on-one dinner in a nearly empty restaurant (times are still hard!) at the Radisson hotel in Astana. When the Ambassador arrived, Idenov was barking into his cell phone, "Mark, Mark, stop the excuses! Mark, listen to me! Mark, shut up right now and do as I say! Bring the letter to my office at 10:00 pm, and we will go together to take it to (Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, MEMR) Mynbayev at his house." On ending the call, Idenov explained he was talking to British Gas (BG) Country Director for Kazakhstan Mark Rawlings who had missed the deadline to deliver a letter about arbitration on the Karachaganak super-giant oil-field project (reftel). Still clearly steamed, Idenov XXXXXXXXXXXX "I tell him, 'Mark, stop being an idiot! Stop tempting fate! XXXXXXXXXXXX Idenov asked, "Do you know how much he (Rawlings) makes? $72,000 a month! A month!! Plus benefits! Plus bonuses! Lives in Switzerland but supposedly works in London. Comes here once a month to check in. Nice life, huh?"3. (S) Idenov calmed down and said, "Let's look at the menus." Then he immediately started typing on his PDA and turned the screen toward the Ambassador, saying, "Let's look at the 'four courses.'" On the screen were four names: Kalmurzayev, Musin, Saudabayev, and Masimov-Kulibayev." Idenov said, "The Big Four around Number One." (NOTE: Sarybai Kalmurzayev, currently the head of Administration and General Services in the Presidential Administration, was, among other jobs, a former head of the Financial Police and, before that, in the 1990s, in charge of privatization. Aslan Musin is the current Chief of Staff for Nazarbayev. Kanat Saudabayev, a personal friend of Nazarbayev for nearly 40 years, is Minister of State and Foreign Minister. Karim Masimov is Prime Minister, and Timur Kulibayev is currently the favored presidential son-in-law, on the Forbes 500 list of billionaires (as is his wife separately), and the ultimate controller of 90% of the economy of Kazakhstan. END NOTE.) In response to a question, Idenov said that Masimov has a degree of freedom, but never acts without permission from "the hyphen" (Kulibayev). Then Idenov stood up abruptly and carried his PDA to a ledge about 20 feet from the table and asked the Ambassador to turn off his cell phone.4. (S) Idenov said he wanted to explain why he has been less visible for at least the last half year. Starting last spring, all the "Big Four" (on the menu) began blocking him from seeing President Nazarbayev. In October, KMG PresidentASTANA 00000072 002 OF 003Kairgeldy Kabyldin told Idenov, "Kulibayev doesn't want to work with you any more." Idenov said he replied, "Fine," immediately returned to his office, wrote his letter of resignation, and packed up his personal files and photos of his family." He said Mynbayev immediately called and asked, "My dear friend, what are you doing?!" Idenov said he was fed up and was going to the Middle East to work -- "I want out of here!" PM Masimov called and said, "Nazarbayev wants to know how you're doing. He'd really like to see you when you have time." Idenov, who said he'd been trying to see the President for months but had been blocked by the "Big Four," went to see the President and told him, "Kabyldin says Kulibayev doesn't want to work with me any more." Idenov said the President told him to calm down: "It's probably just evil gossip. I'll have Karim (Masimov) talk to Timur (Kulibayev). Then Idenov went to Masimov and told him, "OK, I'll stay, but how do I deal with this?" Masimov said he'd talk to both Kabyldin and Kulibayev.5. (S) Soon, intermediaries arranged an Idenov-Kulibayev meeting. Idenov said they both pretended to ignore the core problem -- Kulibayev's, he alleged, avarice for large bribes. Idenov averred he told Kulibayev, "Please watch your image and reputation. You have a real opportunity to improve your own image and the image of the nation." Idenov said Kulibayev was "like a Buddha with a Paris manicure," and both understood life would continue. Idenov said he believes he has, so far, the president's protection. "But the games continue," he said. Idenov alleged that both XXXXXXXXXXXX-- and Kulibayev is salivating to profit from them -- but, so far, Idenov stands in the way. "So long as Nazarbayev says he wants Kashagan and Karachaganak developed according to international standards, that's what I'll do."6. (SBU) (NOTE: Fugitive former CEO of BTA bank, Mukhtar Ablyazov, accused of embezzling over $1 billion, recently leaked "documentary evidence" to the international media that China's state companies have bribed Kulibayev over $100 million in recent months for oil deals. END NOTE.)7. (S) The Ambassador asked if the corruption and infighting are worse now than before. Idenov paused, thought, and then replied, "No, not really. It's business as usual." Idenov brushed off a question if the current maneuverings are part of a succession struggle. "Of course not. It's too early for that. As it's always been, it's about big money. Capitalism -- you call it market economy -- means huge money. Listen, almost everyone at the top is confused. They're confused by their Soviet mentality. They're confused by the corrupt excesses of capitalism. 'If Goldman Sachs executives can make $50 million a year and then run America's economy in Washington, what's so different about what we do?' they ask."OTHER TIDBITS8. (S) MODEST WEALTH. Idenov alleged that MEMR's Mynbayev is among the richest in Kazakhstan but "flies under the radar" because he is a relatively modest and very hard-working technocrat. His great wealth derives, in part, from his former ownership of KazKommerzBank -- "But he never flaunts it."9. (S) VULTURES. Idenov alleged that GazProm and China National Petroleum Company "continue to circle like vultures," hoping that the Kashagan and Karachaganak consortia will implode, and then they can pick up the pieces. "Won't happen on my watch!" Idenov vowed.10. (C) HOW TO ORDER LAMB. Idenov insisted the Ambassador order a bottle of wine for their dinner but then never touched his first glass. Instead, he gulped three cans of Coca-Cola while inhaling his food. When both he and the Ambassador ordered lamb chops, Idenov advised, "Well done,ASTANA 00000072 003 OF 003never rare -- this is Astana, not London!"11. (S) COMMENT: Idenov is effusive, even theatrical, by nature. When he trusts, he spills his heart. Of course, there's no doubt he also spins his own narrative, as we all do. And so, this dinner is simply a snapshot -- but, we would judge, a relatively accurate glimpse of one version of current reality. The significant point is that Nazarbayev is standing with Idenov, not Kulibayev, to maintain international standards to develop the massive Kashagan and Karachaganak hydrocarbon projects. END COMMENT. HOAGLANDKazakhstanPrince AndrewMonarchyUS foreign policyOilUnited StatesThe US embassy cablesguardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds guardian.co.uk |
WikiLeaks is threatening national security, says Downing Street Leak of thousands of confidential diplomatic cables is condemned as No10 braces for further embarrassing revelations from WikiLeaks throughout the week. telegraph.co.uk |